Expectations of Resumed U.S.-Iran Talks Rise, Asia-Pacific Stocks Rally, U.S. After-Hours AI Sector Under Pressure

As expectations for the resumption of U.S.-Iran talks continue to rise, global stock markets have received a positive response, with Asia-Pacific stocks generally rallying. The MSCI All-Country World Index recorded a nine-day winning streak, its longest since last September. Meanwhile, the U.S. after-hours AI and related chip sectors came under pressure, with leading stocks such as ASML and Micron Technology falling to varying degrees. Among them, ASML once dropped more than 2% in after-hours trading due to its Q2 performance outlook falling short of expectations.

On Wednesday, April 15, global capital markets showed a clear divergent trend. According to global capital market monitoring data, the MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.2%, closing higher for nine consecutive trading days, the longest winning streak since September 2025. The Asia-Pacific Stock Index also strengthened, rising 1.1%, with major Asia-Pacific markets posting gains of varying magnitudes, and many markets having erased all losses since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. On the U.S. stock front, the S&P 500 Index fluctuated upward, reapproaching the all-time high set in late January, and market risk appetite continued to recover.

U.S. after-hours trading was divergent, with the AI and chip-related sectors under obvious pressure. Among them, chip equipment giant ASML fell more than 2% in U.S. after-hours trading, Micron Technology dropped 1.7% in after-hours trading, and TSMC's after-hours gain narrowed to 0.4%. It is reported that ASML raised its full-year sales guidance on the same day, but its Q2 performance outlook released simultaneously was slightly lower than market expectations, which became the main reason for the pressure on its stock price.

Developments related to U.S.-Iran talks have become the core factor affecting market sentiment. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Fox News on the 14th that he believes the war between the U.S. and Iran is "coming to an end" and hinted that talks with Iran "may be held in Pakistan within the next two days." This statement briefly pushed down international oil prices, with Brent crude oil falling to as low as $93.93 per barrel intraday, then rebounding fluctuantly and finally closing up about 1% to $95.75 per barrel in narrow fluctuations, always staying below the $100 per barrel mark—a price regarded by the market as a key reference for judging inflationary pressures.

In terms of other major assets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained little changed at 4.25%, continuing its previous upward trend, reflecting that lower oil prices help ease market inflation expectations; the Bloomberg Dollar Index was basically flat after seven consecutive trading days of decline, and the exchange rate market tended to be stable; gold prices fell slightly to about $4,825 per ounce; copper prices performed strongly, having recovered all losses since the outbreak of the Middle East war six weeks ago; Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $74,346.15.

It should be noted that although market sentiment has improved due to expectations of talks, the fundamental risks in the Middle East situation have not been completely eliminated. At present, the United States is still advancing the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with the core goal of curbing Iran's crude oil exports. The game between the two sides for control of this strategic waterway continues, and subsequent changes in the situation will still affect the global energy market and capital market trends.

In the technology sector, the wave of AI investment continues to drive the growth in demand for chip equipment. According to ASML's official statement, the company has raised its full-year net sales forecast range from the previous 34 billion to 39 billion euros to 36 billion to 40 billion euros (about $42.4 billion). Its CEO Christophe Fouquet said that the growth prospects of the semiconductor industry continue to consolidate, and driven by the continuous heating up of AI infrastructure investment, customers are accelerating their expansion plans. As the world's only enterprise capable of producing Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML's equipment is the core infrastructure for producing NVIDIA's AI training and inference chips.

Market data shows that since the beginning of this year, tech giants such as Microsoft and Alphabet, as well as AI startups such as OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, plan to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure, directly driving ASML's stock price to rise 39% year-to-date. In addition, TSMC announced a capital expenditure plan of up to $56 billion in January this year, and SK Hynix also reached an advanced equipment procurement agreement with ASML that will last until 2027, worth about $8 billion, further supporting the demand in the chip equipment industry.

At the same time, the U.S. Q1 earnings season officially kicked off, and corporate earnings showed strong resilience. According to listed company announcements and market monitoring data, JPMorgan Chase recorded a record quarterly trading revenue in Q1, but its stock price still closed slightly lower; Citigroup's stock price rose after announcing its highest quarterly return on tangible common equity in five years; BlackRock had a net inflow of $130 billion in Q1, and despite facing fluctuations in the public and private markets and uncertainties brought about by the Iran war, capital continued to flow in, and the company's stock price rose 3%.

Scott Helfstein, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X ETFs, said that enterprises have continued to show remarkable resilience in the face of supply chain, tariff and even energy shocks, which is a positive signal for investors and also provides support for the stability of the capital market.

Subsequent relevant market dynamics and the progress of U.S.-Iran talks will be updated continuously.

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